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8 NFL Betting Trends for Chiefs-Broncos in Week 14


The Kansas City Chiefs will look to snap a three-game ATS losing streak against the Denver Broncos in Week 14. Here are eight

NFL betting trends for the game, for which the Chiefs are an 8.5-point road favorite at BetMGM:

Spread Woes…

While this is just the Chiefs' second ATS losing streak of at least three games since early in the 2021 season, they now have just four ATS wins in their last 14 regular-season games, tied with the Los Angeles Rams for the fewest in the NFL over that time.

…Only in the Second Half

The Chiefs didn't cover the first-half spread (-0.5) in Cincinnati and now have three first-half ATS losses in their last five games. Still, they've been one of the NFL's best first-half cover teams over the last 14 regular-season games; they've covered in eight of those games, including five of eight on the road.

Sizable Road Favorites

It's been a dreadful season for road favorites of at least 4 points. 

The Chiefs' Week 1 win over the Arizona Cardinals is one of only league-wide seven ATS wins in 28 opportunities (25%). It's on pace for the worst cover rate in the last two decades.

Patrick Mahomes After a Loss

Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) during an NFL football game against the Cincinnati Bengals, Sunday, December 4, 2022 in Cincinnati.

The Chiefs are 12-3 against the moneyline and 9-6 against the spread in games started by Patrick Mahomes that followed a loss, including two covers and outright wins in two opportunities this season.

Russell Wilson After a Loss

From 2012-20, Russell Wilson won nearly 80% (34-9) of his starts after his team lost the previous game, the best rate among quarterbacks with at least 20 starts over that time. His team also covered the spread in approximately 60% (31-21-4) of those opportunities, the seventh-best rate.

But since last season, Wilson is 5-9 (35.7%) outright and 6-8 (42.9%), including 2-5 and 3-4, respectively, in 2022. The Broncos have rebounded from a loss with a win just once in their last six opportunities – Week 8 vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars.

Road Unders

The under in Chiefs' games is on pace to finish above .500 (7-5) for the first time since 2016.

However, in combining for fewer than 53 points against the Bengals, the under hit in a Chiefs' road game for just the second time in six games this season and just the fourth time in 14 games since 2021.

Since 2021, the under is 4-10 in Chiefs' road games but 10-5 in home games.

Struggling Offenses in Late-Season Games

In the last 20 years, there have been only 79 NFL games played in December and January in which one team entered averaging 14 or fewer points per game. It's happened only 11 times in the last four years.

In those 11 games, the under is 2-9.

Under Streaks

One trend that pushes back on the last two under trends:

There have been 57 games this season in which both teams hit the under in their previous game. The under is 34-22-1 (60.7%) in those games, continuing a trend that began with 40 unders in 67 opportunities (59.7%) last season.

With the Broncos' under hitting (again) in Week 13, both teams will enter Sunday's game after an under in their previous game.


You can view updated odds for Chiefs-Broncos and more online sports betting opportunities at the BetMGM online sportsbook.