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Five Things to Watch on Sunday | Broncos vs. Chiefs

Here’s a quick game preview heading into Sunday

The Kansas City Chiefs will look to remain unbeaten on Sunday afternoon with a divisional showdown against the Denver Broncos.

Here are some quick notes to know heading into the game.

1. Here's the final injury report for both teams.

The Chiefs will be without wide receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster (hamstring) on Sunday, but in some good news, cornerback Nazeeh Johnson (concussion protocol) and defensive end Mike Danna (pectoral strain) each appear to be in line to play. Danna, in particular, will return after missing the Chiefs' last three games.

The only other designation of note is defensive tackle Tershawn Wharton (knee), who is listed as "Questionable" for Sunday.

As for Denver, the Broncos are relatively healthy heading into Sunday. One status to watch will be that of center Luke Wattenberg (ankle), who started each of Denver's first five games but hasn't played since Week 5.

2. The Broncos own the No. 3 scoring defense in the NFL.

Denver is yielding just 17.9 points-per-game this season, which trails only the Chargers (12.6) and Steelers (14.9) in terms of scoring defense through Week 9. The Broncos are somewhat surprisingly in the middle of the pack of most defensive categories, however, despite their overall success.

Denver ranks eighth in red zone touchdown efficiency (47.8%), 12th in fewest plays allowed of 20+ yards (29) and 16th on third down (36.8%), but where the Broncos have excelled is at forcing negative plays. Denver ranks second in the league in total sacks (31) and fourth in negative plays forced (63), and consequently, the Broncos are allowing only 295.2 yards-per-game (sixth in the NFL) and 4.71 yards-per-play (second in the NFL).

It sets up a "something has to give" type of scenario on Sunday due to the fact that Kansas City has committed the fourth-fewest negative plays of any team (42) this year. So, just as the Chiefs have managed to do all year long, remaining ahead of the sticks is critical against this defense.

Additionally, one of the primary reasons the Broncos have found so much success defensively is their reliance on blitzing the opposition. Denver owns the second-highest blitz rate (35.6%) in the NFL, sending additional rushers after the opposing quarterback at least 34% of the time in each of its nine games this season.

Here's a quick game-by-game breakdown:

  • Week 1 vs. Geno Smith: 57.1%
  • Week 2 vs. Justin Fields: 57.7%
  • Week 3 vs. Baker Mayfield: 50%
  • Week 4 vs. Aaron Rodgers: 49%
  • Week 5 vs. Gardner Minshew: 42.9%
  • Week 6 vs. Justin Herbert: 60.5%
  • Week 7 vs. Spencer Rattler: 34.1%
  • Week 8 vs. Bryce Young: 39%
  • Week 9 vs. Lamar Jackson: 45.5%

It's their bread and butter, but it sets up an interesting decision for Defensive Coordinator Vane Joseph, as Chiefs' quarterback Patrick Mahomes has been blitzed at the second-lowest rate in the league this season at just 22.3%.

So, will Joseph stick with what Denver has done all year, or play it closer to what the rest of the league has done? The answer remains to be seen, but for what it's worth, Joseph chose to blitz Mahomes on 24% of his dropbacks across the Chiefs' two meetings with Denver last season (22 of 90 dropbacks).

3. Kansas City's offense continues to win on third down and in the red zone.

The Chiefs have been extremely efficient in two key areas over the last three weeks: third down and in the red zone. Since Week 7, Kansas City is 32-of-48 on third down (a league-best 66.7%) and 11-for-13 in terms of red zone touchdown efficiency. That success has, unsurprisingly, led to at least 27 points in three-straight games.

A key part of that efficiency has been running back Kareem Hunt, who ranks second in the NFL in carries (111) behind only Derrick Henry (128) since Week 4. In fact, Hunt leads the NFL in touches-per-game (23.6), and here's the craziest part: Hunt's 118 total touches mark the most through five games for any player signed mid-season in the Super Bowl Era.

Hunt's efforts have helped the Chiefs tally the fewest negative rushes (excluding kneel downs) in the NFL with eight, meaning that Kansas City is consistently gaining yardage on the ground. That efficiency creates manageable deficits in order to move the chains, and it's a primary reason why Kansas City leads the NFL in "successful play" percentage at 56.9%, which evaluates every play based on the following parameters:

  • The offense gains 40% of the yardage necessary for a first down on first down
  • The offense gains 50% of the yardage necessary for a first down on second down
  • The offense gains the first down on third or fourth down

The Chiefs have excelled in this category all year long, and Hunt's contributions are a significant reason why. It sets up a great battle with Denver, too, as the Broncos are holding opponents to the second-lowest "successful play" percentage in the league at 42.4%.

4. Broncos' quarterback Bo Nix has proven to be dangerous with his legs.

Nix – the No. 12 overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft – has demonstrated real growth over the course of his young career, bouncing back from consecutive games with multiple interceptions to begin the season to throw eight touchdowns and just two picks in his last seven contests.

Perhaps his most impressive attribute, however, and what the Chiefs need to be ready for on Sunday is his athleticism as a ball-carrier. Nix ranks fifth in the NFL among all quarterbacks in rushing yards this year with 295, and his 27 rushing first downs rank third in the league among passers (10 of which took place on third down).

The Chiefs' defense is yielding just 83.9 rushing yards-per-game this season, which ranks third in the NFL, but while Kansas City has been excellent against opposing running backs this year, the Chiefs will also need to be ready for Nix's ability as a runner throughout Sunday's game.

Keep in mind, the Chiefs rank third in the league in blitz rate (just behind Denver) at 35%, and Nix has been blitzed at a 34.9% clip this season. It's safe to assume Kansas City will blitz Nix early and often on Sunday, but due to Nix's skills as a runner, it's imperative the Chiefs' rush gets home.

5. The Chiefs will aim to maintain their dominance over the AFC West.

It's an objective reality that no team has found more success vs. its own division than Kansas City in recent years. In fact, since Head Coach Andy Reid took over in 2013, the Chiefs are 53-15 vs. divisional opponents, marking the best record for any head coach against his own division in the Super Bowl Era.

Patrick Mahomes, meanwhile, is a ridiculous 32-5 against the AFC West during his career, which is the third-best mark (at .865%) for any quarterback against divisional opponents since 1970. Only Peyton Manning (at 19-2 vs. the AFC West) and Kurt Warner (at 19-2 vs. the NFC West) posted better records in that span.

That success doesn't guarantee anything on Sunday, but what it shows is a clear commitment to preparing for these divisional matchups. The Chiefs have been the best in the business at preparing for these games over the years, and they'll have a chance to put that preparation to the test on Sunday with the third 9-0 start in franchise history on the line.

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