On the heels of a loss in Green Bay, the Chiefs return to the friendly confines of GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium for a matchup with the Bills.
Ample history exists between these teams. The Bills have won two of their last three head-to-head meetings with Kansas City.
However, when these sides met in the 2022 divisional round, Kansas City captured a last-gasp win in overtime.
At the BetMGM online sportsbook, the Chiefs are currently 2.5-point favorites and -140 on the moneyline.
Regarding the total, oddsmakers have it set at 47.5 points, the second-largest number across the Week 14 slate.
With that said, let's dive into my betting strategy for this marquee Week 14 contest.
Patrick Mahomes, Andy Reid Outstanding off a Loss
On the rare occasions the Chiefs lose under Patrick Mahomes, they're quite sharp at bouncing back in a hurry.
For his career, the Texas Tech product is 12-7 against the spread in the game immediately following a loss.
Shrink the sample to the previous two seasons and bettors will find the Chiefs are 5-1 in such spots, including a perfect 3-0 this season.
When you're just asking him to win the game, Mahomes is even better historically. Across those 19 contests, the Chiefs are 16-3 straight up in the games immediately following a defeat.
Regarding head coach Andy Reid – he remains outstanding following a loss dating back to before Mahomes arrived in Kansas City.
During his tenure with the Chiefs, the two-time Super Bowl winning head coach is 29-17 straight up following a defeat.
Just since the 2020-21 season, Reid is 11-1 straight up when the Chiefs lost the previous game.
Chiefs vs. Bills Betting Prediction
The Bills have one advantage over Kansas City in that they'll play on extended rest after their Week 13 bye.
However, in my opinion this game comes down to the defenses.
Kansas City looked vulnerable against the Packers, but they're still ninth in total defensive DVOA this season, including fifth in pass defense DVOA.
The latter metric is especially important for this matchup as Buffalo sits second in pass offense DVOA.
The last few times these sides have met, Kansas City has proved incapable of limiting Buffalo's offense, surrendering 32.7 points per game.
However, bettors have seen the Chiefs face two outstanding offenses at home recently. In games against the Chargers and Eagles, they allowed only 15.5 points per game.
If they can continue that strong defensive form at home, Kansas City's potent offense should exploit a faltering Buffalo defense.
Add in the trends noted above and my best bet for this game is the Kansas City Chiefs (-2.5).
Visit the BetMGM online sportsbook for updated Week 14 NFL odds.
