With the AFC West division title locked up, the Chiefs travel to Los Angeles for a divisional meeting with the Chargers.
Last week, Kansas City produced a home win against the Bengals. That win moved them to 10-6 as they claimed the division win for the eighth consecutive year.
As for the Chargers, they traveled to Denver and lost to the Broncos. That moved the Chargers, who lost 31-17 in the previous meeting against the Chiefs, to 5-11.
However, as a function of the Chiefs' perceived lack of motivation, they're an underdog on Sunday, At the BetMGM online sportsbook, the Chargers are -3.5 on the spread.
Bettors wanting to back the Chiefs, who will start Blaine Gabbert instead of Patrick Mahomes, can either take the points or +155 on the moneyline.
As for the game total, oddsmakers are expecting points to come at a premium. The current total is set at 35 points, largely driven by the fact both teams are starting backup quarterbacks.
With the odds established, let's dive into my preview and best bet for Sunday's game.
Chiefs Match Historical Betting Systems
Money has flowed in on the Chargers since the line opened – it was initially Chargers -1 – but there's a case to be made it's gone too far.
Since the 2005-06 season, teams that see their spread move upward in the last game of the regular season are 44% against the spread in those contests.
That trend sees the Chargers qualify as a fit for that system, given they've moved two-and-a-half points from open.
Additionally, divisional underdogs have previously done quite well historically when the contest features a low total.
Since the 2018-19 season, divisional dogs in games with a total less than or equal to 42 points are 60% against the spread, including 19-14-1 ATS this season.
Now, that obviously assumes teams are playing with proper motivation. However, even if you shrink the sample down to January games, those teams are 12-10 ATS since 2020-21.
Lastly, as a function of the Chargers moving up to -3.5, they trigger another profitable system in Kansas City's direction.
Dating back to 2018-19, fading home favorites who sit at -3.5 or higher a week after playing a road game sees bettors win at a 57.8% clip.
Add in the fact Andy Reid is outstanding as an underdog – he's 57% ATS for his career in that spot – and bettors may consider backing the Chiefs at +3.5 or better.
However, if the line drops back down to Chargers -3 or -2.5, bettors could benefit from backing the line move and taking the home team at or under a key number.
Visit the BetMGM online sportsbook for updated Week 18 NFL odds.
