The Kansas City Chiefs will aim to get back in the win column this weekend with a divisional showdown against the Denver Broncos.
Here are five things to keep in mind heading into game day.
1. Here's a look at the final injury report for both teams.
The Chiefs will be without tailback Isiah Pacheco (knee) on Sunday for the second-straight game, but in some good news, offensive tackle Josh Simmons – who missed the last four games due to personal reasons – is set to make his return against Denver.
As for the Broncos, they'll be without a major contributor on each side of the ball. On offense, Denver will be missing tailback J.K. Dobbins, whose 772 rushing yards rank fifth in the league, due to a foot injury. Dobbins has been the Broncos' workhorse at tailback this year, accounting for 23% of Denver's offensive yardage all by himself. His absence is a big one, but rookie tailback R.J. Harvey – who has impressed in limited opportunities this year – is certainly a capable backup. The Chiefs will need to prevent Harvey from having a memorable performance on Sunday.
Defensively, All-Pro cornerback and reigning Defensive Player of the Year Patrick Surtain will miss his third-straight game due to a pectoral injury. Additionally, linebacker Alex Singleton – whose 660 defensive snaps rank second on the Broncos – will miss Sunday's game as he recovers from surgery related to a recent cancer diagnosis. Singleton told reporters this week that doctors caught the cancer early, and he's expected to make a full recovery.
2. The Chiefs will need to prevent the Broncos' historic pass-rush from wrecking the game.
Denver has racked up a league-most 46 sacks this season, leading second-place by a whopping 14 sacks. For context, that gap between Denver and second-place is the same as the divide between second-place and twenty-fifth place.
That tally is historic, too. It's the highest sack total for any team through 10 games since 1989, and only three teams in NFL history recorded more. Additionally, the Broncos 21 third-down sacks are the most through 10 games for any team since at least 1991.
Denver also leads the NFL in quarterback hits (87), quarterback pressures (167) and pressure percentage (42.9%) through 10 games, and the man leading the way as part of that effort has been edge-rusher Nik Bonitto, whose 9.5 sacks rank third in the NFL. Next Gen Stats credits Bonitto with the most pressures in the league (51) and the most "total disruptions" of any player (73).
It's not just Bonitto, however, and that's what makes the Broncos' pass-rush so effective. Denver has generated pressure from just about everybody, as evidenced by its 10 different players with multiple sacks on the season. Specifically, the Broncos are the only team in the NFL to feature three different players with at least six sacks, as defensive tackle Zach Allen (6 sacks) and edge-rusher Jonathon Cooper (7.5 sacks) join Bonitto on that list.
Those results are the product of an aggressive scheme by Defensive Coordinator Vance Joseph, who is currently blitzing at a 27% clip. Denver has blitzed the opposing quarterback on at least 30% of dropbacks in eight of its 10 games this season, and there's no reason to suspect anything different this week. The Broncos blitzed quarterback Patrick Mahomes on 57% of his dropbacks in Week 10 last year, and following a week in which Mahomes was under pressure on a season-high 46% of his dropbacks against Buffalo, protection is paramount on Sunday.
"They have five really good defensive linemen that can all win in different ways," Mahomes said. "They know to get after the quarterback, and so for us, it's just [about] having great protection schemes, changing up the looks for them so they can't just tee off, and then just going out there and getting the ball out of my hands whenever I need to, and then taking shots when I need to as well."
That pass-rush is also a primary reason behind the Broncos' league-best red zone defense, which has allowed touchdowns at only a 37.5% clip. The Chiefs, who own the league's No. 3 red-zone offense at 70.3%, will aim to change that on Sunday.
3. Kansas City's offense will look to recapture the success it found prior to the Buffalo game.
The Chiefs entered Week 9 having scored at least 28 points in five-straight games, marking the longest streak for any team this year, until that run came to an end with a 21-point performance against Buffalo. It was an uncharacteristic outing from the Chiefs, who went just 3-for-13 on third down and were out-possessed by nearly 10 minutes, but there's plenty of reason to believe that performance was a blip on the radar rather than the beginning of a trend.
In fact, since Week 4, the Chiefs remain the No. 7 scoring offense in the NFL at 29.2 points-per-game, and the No. 1 total offense at 397.3 yards-per-game. Kansas City also owns the league's No. 5 offense in terms of "successful play rate" at 53.9%, which evaluates an offense based on the following parameters:
1) Anytime the offense gains 40% of the yardage necessary for a first down on first down
2) 50% of the yardage necessary for a first down on second down
3) Gains the first down on third or fourth down
Only the Rams (56.5%), Colts (55.8%) Bills (54.8%) and Packers (54.2%) have been better in that area, and now in a clash against Denver's relentless pass-rush, Kansas City will need to be at its best on Sunday.
4. The Broncos have the league's top scoring margin in the fourth quarter this year.
Denver's offense is an interesting study this season, to say the least. The Broncos have scored 28+ points on four occasions this season, but they've also been held under 21 points five times, illustrating the up-and-down nature of Denver's offense this year.
The Broncos own the league's second-highest three-and-out rate at 28.6%, and here's maybe the craziest stat of the week: The Broncos have tallied the most offensive possessions of any team in the NFL with 119, and on those, they've recorded exactly 28 touchdown drives. The Chiefs, meanwhile, have taken the field for the fewest offensive possessions of any team with just 84, and on those, they've recorded…28 touchdown drives!
That figure demonstrates the Chiefs' efficiency overall offensively this season and the Broncos' general lack of consistency from week-to-week, but to Denver's credit, no team has been better in the fourth quarter of games this season. The Broncos lead the NFL in fourth-quarter point differential (+60), yardage differential (+433) and sack differential (+10) this year, and keep in mind, in half of the Broncos' eight wins, they trailed in the fourth quarter.
That success is due in part to the fourth-quarter heroics of quarterback Bo Nix, who leads the NFL in total fourth-quarter touchdowns (9), fourth-quarter first downs (40), fourth-quarter comebacks (4) and game-winning drives (4). It's all part of what has been an interesting season for Nix, who ranks fifth in the NFL with 18 passing touchdowns but also ranks near the bottom of the league in completion percentage (61%) and yards-per-attempt (6.1). Additionally, Nix's 83.0 passer rating in wins this season is the second-lowest mark for any quarterback in the last 10 seasons.
Nix has found a way when it's mattered the most though, and the result is the league's best overall record at 8-2. So, it's pretty simple: If the Chiefs have an opportunity to seize this game, they need to take advantage of it.
5. Nobody is better following the bye week than Coach Reid.
Reid is 22-4 following regular-season byes in his illustrious career, which works out to an .846 winning percentage. That's the best mark for any head coach in NFL history among those with at least 10 post-bye games coached.
Reid is 9-3 following regular-season byes during his time with the Chiefs, and 6-1 with Patrick Mahomes at quarterback. Kansas City is outscoring the opposition by 64 points in those games with Mahomes, and overall, while past success doesn't guarantee that it'll continue, what those numbers reflect is a commitment to the Chiefs' self-scouting process when given additional time to prepare.
The bye may have fallen at the perfect time when considering the magnitude of this game, and while a 5-4 record isn't where the Chiefs expected to be at this point when the season began, Kansas City's goals are all still right there for the taking. It's just a matter of attacking the second half of the season, and that begins on Sunday in Denver.
