The Kansas City Chiefs will look to get back on track this weekend with a marquee showdown against the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday.
Here are some quick thoughts on the game.
1. Here's a look at the final injury report for both teams.
The Chiefs will be without tailback Isiah Pacheco (knee) on Sunday, marking his third game in a row away from the field. Pacheco returned to practice this week, however, and appears to be at least moving in the right direction.
Kansas City also listed offensive guard Kingsley Suamataia (concussion protocol) and wide receiver Xavier Worthy (ankle) as "Questionable" for the game.
As for the Colts, cornerback (and former Chief) Charvarius Ward is listed as "Questionable" for the game, although he appears set to make his return after missing the last several games due to concussion protocol.
Additionally, while he isn't carrying an injury designation, one thing that may be worth keeping an eye on is the status of quarterback Daniel Jones, who was limited in practice on Thursday due to a calf injury, but returned to log a full practice on Friday. Regardless, his ability to function will be something to watch.
It's also worth noting that Indianapolis will be without defensive tackle DeForest Buckner, who is currently on Injured Reserve due to a neck injury. Buckner ranks second on the Colts in total pressures (with 33), and his absence is significant.
2. The Chiefs' offense continues to rank among the league-leaders in numerous categories, but their execution is critical moments must improve.
Kansas City remains a top-10 offensive unit in terms of scoring offense (25.4), total offense (364.2), third-down conversion rate (41.3%), successful play rate (53.6%), passing yards (2,625) and total touchdowns (30) this year. Even advanced metrics such as EPA, which stands for "Expected Points Added," rank the Chiefs' offense as the second-best in the NFL.
So, what's the issue? Well, a consistent theme in the Chiefs' five losses this season – all of which have been by one score, and three by just a field goal each – has been a lack of execution in critical moments and, as a result, too many missed opportunities.
The Chiefs had numerous chances to close out last week's game against Denver, for example. Kansas City had a pair of drives late in the fourth quarter – first with the lead, and later in a tie game – but punted on both possessions. It was a disappointing result, but it also demonstrates how thin the margin has been in these games. Kansas City has been right there in all of its losses, but moving forward – and beginning this week – the Chiefs have to find a way to execute in those critical moments.
Another area to watch – and one that's not quite as obvious – is the Chiefs' opening drive of the third quarter. Kansas City has found the end zone on its first drive of the second half in all five of its wins this season. Conversely, the Chiefs have scored just once (in the opener against the Chargers) to begin the third quarter in their five losses.
Clearly, the opening drive of the second half has served as a tone-setter for the Chiefs' offense – for better or for worse. A touchdown on the opening series of the third quarter this week would be a great sign for Kansas City's offense against Indianapolis.
3. The Colts' offense leads the NFL in numerous offensive categories, and it all begins with tailback Jonathan Taylor.
Indianapolis' offense, a year after ranking 17th in scoring, is maybe the surprise of the entire season thus far. In fact, the Colts – through 10 games – are up there with some of the greatest offenses in NFL history. Indianapolis leads the NFL in point differential (+115), scoring offense (32.1), total offense (396.9), yards-per-play (6.4), first downs-per-game (23.7), and three-and-out percentage (13.1%). The Colts are also averaging 3.2 points-per-drive, which is the best for any team since the 2007 New England Patriots.
That collective performance has been nothing short of remarkable, and at the core of the Colts' offensive success has been tailback Jonathan Taylor, who's putting together an MVP-caliber season.
Taylor leads the NFL in rushing yards (1,139) and rushing touchdowns (15) while ranking second in runs of double-digit yardage (28) and forced missed tackles (48). The number that really explains Taylor's season, however, is his ridiculous, league-leading 891 yards after contact. For context, only the Bills' James Cook has more total rushing yards than Taylor does just after contact this year.
It's easier said than done, but the path to a Chiefs' victory on Sunday begins with at least limiting Taylor's damage, and for what it's worth, it has been done before. In the Colts' two losses this season, Taylor was held to a combined 121 rushing yards and just 3.9 yards-per-carry. The Chiefs have generally been very good against opposing running backs this year, yielding just one 100-yard rusher all season, and they'll need to be at their absolute best on Sunday.
4. Creating pressure on Colts' quarterback Daniel Jones is critical.
If the first step to slowing down the Colts' historic offense is stopping Taylor, the second is creating pressure on Daniel Jones, who's in the midst of a terrific season.
Jones leads the NFL in passing yards-per-game (265.9), he's third in completion percentage (69.9%) and he's fourth in yards-per-attempt (8.34). The veteran passer has also been excellent on third down, ranking in the top 10 in completion percentage (2nd), passer rating (5th), passing yards-per-attempt (6th) and total first downs (7th) among all quarterbacks.
He also has weapons everywhere, notably in wide receiver Michael Pittman, wide receiver Alec Pierce and rookie tight end Tyler Warren. Those three form the only trio of teammates across the league with 550+ receiving yards each.
So, how can the Chiefs prevent Jones and the Colts' passing game from having another brilliant outing on Sunday? The answer is by creating pressure.
In Jones' four games this season in which he has faced a pressure rate under 30%, he's 4-0 with seven passing touchdowns and zero interceptions. In his six games facing a pressure rate of 30% or higher, however, he's 4-2 with eight touchdowns and seven interceptions. Creating pressure is obviously key on Sunday.
Additionally, Jones – due in large part to pressure – has thrown four interceptions and committed six fumbles (three lost) over his last two games. A takeaway or two on Sunday could go a long way toward a Chiefs' victory.
5. The Chiefs have been excellent at home this season, and they'll need to be at their best on Sunday.
For whatever reason, the Chiefs have been substantially better at home this season when compared to their collective performances on the road. Specifically, since Week 4, the Chiefs are 4-0 at home while outscoring their opponents by an average of 20.5 points-per-game.
Overall, quarterback Patrick Mahomes leads the NFL with 14 passing touchdowns (and just three picks) in home games this year, and for what it's worth, this week's matchup looks a lot like Kansas City's meeting with the Detroit Lions in Week 6. The Chiefs entered that game following a heartbreaking loss on the road to Jacksonville in which Kansas City had multiple opportunities to win the game, but didn't do so. Detroit, meanwhile, entered the matchup as the league's No. 1 scoring offense. Kansas City rose to the occasion, however, and dominated Detroit in all three phases.
That performance was probably the Chiefs' best overall outing of the season, and now in a near identical situation, Kansas City will need a similar all-around effort on Sunday.
